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Real Estate in 2023 is beginning to be reminiscent of 1980.  The corporate player with the most to lose influences a precarious market.  The Toronto real estate market pretty much operates in lock step with Vancouver and we are now seeing major Toronto developers opting out of the current market.  What we are seeing here is almost finished or completed developments competing for a dwindling number of buyers -probably allowing for more flexibility in final pricing as time goes on. 

With the present scramble for affordable housing, developers are going to have a hard time fitting that into their lower budgets. Our increased interest rates on top of the hard times caused by a pandemic add to the mix and do not encourage hesitant buyers to take the plunge even as inventories slowly increase. 

The Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board reports that “It is noteworthy that the multifamily segment remains more active than the detached segment at this time.” 

This is certainly reflected in our local sales statistics for October.  Port Moody experienced the highest number of attached sales with a 45% sales ratio average.  Pitt Meadows and Port Coquitlam were hot on their heels. We note that the townhomes with more family space are the hot commodity.

The considerably lower number of building permits for detached homes are yet another sign of Canada’s vanishing single family homes.  In June the value of permits for detached homes fell 35% from the previous year – near the lowest levels in the early pandemic months. Down the road detached homes could be a rarity – a valuable option!  Our municipalities are encouraging laneway housing which would maintain many detached homes while still adding more homes.  

This is a market to watch for opportunities, both as buyers and sellers. No two neighbourhood pockets are the same, so you need the local real estate perspective on what is actually happening in your small neck of the woods.  Remember – if you are selling in a lower market, you will buy in a similarly low market.  And..real estate turns on a dime, often without warning, so let us watch closely for you. If you want to be kept informed and are anticipating a move – even way off, we are happy to give you the straight goods and enable you to make an informed decision of your own choosing.

Remember we were all working in the real estate market in 1980 and other equivalent markets prior – this is not our first rodeo!!

Enjoy the season.  We look forward to seeing you out and about and are always happy to have a chat.

We remain your Generations Real Estate Partners:

Michelle Hawthorne, Scott Johnson, Shane Goutsis, Ray Harris and Sheila Francis.

Happy Fall…or is it still summer? Our weather seems hesitant to move into Autumn except for the beautiful tree colours. Our real estate market is showing the same hesitancy – not the usual Fall buzz with the next time line to meet as a buyer or seller being Christmas. It is in part the wait and see game overwhelming the let’s make a move now.

The above was a favourite quote from our favourite business coach, Keith Cornies. We think of it now as we are all caught in the waves of rising interest rates, still rising real estate prices (in some spots), and rising costs of all our basic purchases. However, our market stats defy the stormy seas as The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports: “Home Prices across all home types in Metro Vancouver rose again in July, as strong sales figures continue to push up against low levels of housing inventory in the region.” While our mortgage rates are the highest for 10 years, the July sales activity beat the levels for the same time last year. Attached home sales in the region showed a 53.3% increase compared to the July 2022 attached sales.

Yes, according to Andrew Lis, director of economics and data analytics for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, “The market continues to outperform expectations across all segments, but the apartment segment showed the most relative strength in June.” Not only is this the case in the overall market of Metro Vancouver, but our local sales reflect the same market strength – especially in the case of apartments and townhomes.

According to the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, residential real estate sale prices increased in June for the sixth consecutive month! Andrew Lis, the Board’s director of economics and data analytics said that Metro Vancouver prices are up by approximately 6% or more – quite a contrast to the 2% increase by year end originally forecast. “The fundamental issue remains that there are more buyers relative to the number of willing sellers in the market,” said Lis.

Local experiences and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver confirm that home sales have “mounted a surprising comeback, rising near levels seen last Spring before eight consecutive interest rate hikes….”  Yes –  the absolute power of record low inventory defies the political tactics to slow a hot market.  Despite the 3 day recission period, buyers are competing to purchase homes with subject free offers. 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported that the February real estate sales “remained well below historical norms” – 33% below the 10 year February sales average. Surprisingly they also reported that apartment sales suffered a whopping 49.9% decrease from February last year. There will be deals to be had as time goes on….watch this space.

No, we didn’t need a crystal ball to forecast the January real estate sales!  Considering the fact that February 2022 proved to be the last of the frenetic, competitive sales, a year on from that, with rapidly increased borrowing costs, higher cost of living and a doom & gloom forecast mentioning the R word, what on earth could we expect?  Not the only reason – but often we also create our own self fulfilling prophecy!

Even though we have such a low inventory, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports that “Home Sales decline below long term averages” and that the region’s sales show a 55.3% decrease from the sales recorded in January last year – lowest in recent history – all still predictable given the current financial climate.

How do our local numbers stack us vis a vis the entire region?  Actually, WE BEAT THE ODDS!!  Regionally last month’s sales to active listings ratio were at 13.7%, while locally from Burnaby, New Westminster east to Maple Ridge, in all markets (detached and attached) except for two, our sales ratio average ranged from a low of 17% to highs of 29, 30, 32, 40% (Pitt Meadows detached).  Also noteworthy was an almost common denominator in our local markets of rising inventories, so that those buyers who can qualify to buy a home have more choice.

Always when outside entities and influences affect the real estate market, there are UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.  We shall find out what some of those are as homeowners face a mortgage renewal at significantly higher rates than their previous mortgage.  We can help by referring you to an expert more able to suggest alternative solutions and tailor those to your particular circumstances.  Don’t hesitate to call us for help when you need it – we have been down this road before and know it hurts.  

The other advice we’d like to give all our clients and friends is to make sure that you have TITLE INSURANCE – this following a successful spate of fraudsters in Ontario selling real owners’ homes by means of successfully using new sophisticated technology to produce perfect copies of owners’ identity documents – passports, drivers licences etc. If you need more information on how the insurance can help, please call us.  We don’t want this to happen to any of us.

If we want a read on what is happening outside of all of the above, let us watch the brand new condo market and remember that most of those developers cannot afford to keep all those condos empty and unsold ad infinitum.  There is lots of competition in the new condo market with more buildings still coming up for completion. There will be deals as developers test the market to find out the magic price at which their product will sell.  Looking at eastern Canada, the writing is already on the wall as one developer reduces the asking price by $100,000.  Yes, they will be the guys who set the tone for the rest of the market. Not a new concept – remember 2008!

This moment in time makes us grateful for the decades of real estate experience we have as your real estate partners so that we are able to help you navigate these ever evolving circumstances. Please don’t hesitate to tap into that – we are always ready to listen and help.  We are also truly grateful for the trust you have placed in us both recently and in the past – our clients ALWAYS come first.

Remember that tough times don’t last, but tough teams do!

We remain your Generations Real Estate Partners:-

Michelle Hawthorne, Scott Johnson, Shane Goutsis, Ray Harris and Sheila Francis. 

After more than 4 decades of being your neighbourhood real estate team, we feel that we can identify with the above statement. Residential real estate is an ever changing landscape affected by many factors beyond simply the buyers and sellers – interest rates, inflation, politics, immigration, the wider economy, inventory, a war elsewhere and so it goes on….
Realising this, it is unwise to do the crystal ball trick and predict the future of real estate for 2023!

We have just come through a very predictable December despite all the circumstances at play. People don’t want to sell their homes over the Christmas season and this was reflected in the declining (often steeply) inventories in every single local market place. And of course the weather didn’t help! We cannot predict when sellers are going to feel more comfortable with placing their homes on the market. For downsizers it could be when they see many more choices in new condos and townhomes and the same goes for first time buyers. Undoubtedly Vancouver and the Lower Mainland are on track for many apartment buildings to be completed and on the market this year.

The only local market to defy the December odds was Pitt Meadows – both in detached and attached sales. Their attached sales show a 74% sales ratio average while their detached sales are at a healthy 50%
So…watch this space as we look at the numbers in this new year and see where the market takes us. If you are contemplating a move, even if it seems far off, please get in touch so we can answer your questions about what would be important to do in your home to be market ready. Always better to be prepared – you are then in a position to take advantage of a small inventory situation in your neighbourhood. And…we are always happy to talk real estate!

Happy New Year to all our clients and friends – both those who celebrated December 31 and those about to celebrate lunar New year January 22. We wish you all good health, happiness and prosperity, and look forward to seeing you out and about in our fair cities.

Your Generations Real Estate Partners:
Michelle Hawthorne, Scott Johnson, Shane Goutsis, Ray Harris and Sheila Francis.

This according to analysis by Andrew Lis, director, economics & data analytics for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver: “Heading into 2023, the market continues the trend of shifting toward historical averages & typical seasonal norms”.
The Board also reports that residential home sales for the region in November showed a 52.9% decrease from the November sales last year, and a 15.2% decrease from the previous month of October this year.

Reviewing the November sales stats between Burnaby east to Maple Ridge, a common denominator is a dropping inventory – in many cases seriously dropping. Only exception is Port Moody’s attached market which is now showing a decrease in sale prices and number of sold units as a result of a sharp increase in inventory. Inventory is always connected to market trends, but at present, not the only consideration.
Where our crystal ball cannot easily forecast the future is in the realms of inflation, interest rates, immigration and political decisions. So…when we talk about reverting to traditional trends, this could be a moment in time which may not extend much into 2023 – we shall be watching for new trends caused by these outside influences – not simply inventory. Real Estate will be a complicated business in the near future. All we know is the present, but will keep you posted as we progress locally.
Strongest November market was in Pitt Meadows attached where the sales ratio average was at 38% . Pitt Meadows detached market had a strong ratio at 31%, closely followed by the Coquitlam attached market with a sales ratio average of 30%. Clearly townhomes and condos continue to be the most popular and most affordable for buyers.

As we move into the festive season, the buyers out looking are serious buyers. This is not the season inviting “lookie Lous”, So, for the sellers out there, if you can, keep your home on the market, as lots of sellers will take their homes off the market missing those buyers who really want to buy in spite of the season. When in doubt, call us for the straight goods!

It has been a pleasure to keep you informed and work with so many of you this year – thank you. We are grateful to you all – both those who bought and/or sold and those kind enough to recommend our team to others. It is such a privilege to live, work and play in our local communities.
We wish you all a Merry Christmas, a happy holiday season and the best of health and good fortune for 2023.

Your Generations Real Estate Partners:
Michelle Hawthorne, Scott Johnson, Shane Goutsis, Ray Harris and Sheila Francis.